Bayes' Theorem: What It Is, Formula, and Examples

Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...
Investopedia

Understanding Prior Probability in Bayesian Statistics

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...
Nature

What is Bayesian statistics?

Alice and Bob are playing a game in which the first person to get 6 points wins. The way each point is decided is a little strange. The Casino has a pool table that Alice and Bob can't see. Before the ...
Nature

Bayesian inference with probabilistic population codes

Virtually all computations performed by the nervous system are subject to uncertainty and taking this into account is critical for making inferences about the outside world. For instance, imagine ...
Inverse

Make Better Decisions With Bayesian Probability, the Smart Way to Consider Risk

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...
Ars Technica

Bayes’ theorem: Its triumphs and discontents

Nate Silver, baseball statistician turned political analyst, gained a lot of attention during the 2012 United States elections when he successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential vote in ...
Scientific American

What is Bayes's theorem, and how can it be used to assign probabilities to questions such as the existence of God? What scientific value does it have?

Chris Wiggins, an associate professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University, offers this explanation. A patient goes to see a doctor. The doctor performs a test with 99 percent ...